538 forecast 2016

I’ll let you guys look at the sites yourselves rather than try to summarize. Read our full mailing list consent terms here. EtcetEra Forum. Discussion. Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. Breaking: FDA approves Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine; 1st US vaccination within 24 hours, says Trump, Another car runs down “protesters” in NYC, CNN’s April Ryan to other journalists: Stop exposing leaks on Biden, A police shooting that shows why we need body cameras, The next six months will be vaccine purgatory, Facebook kowtowed to conservatives and got nothing in return, Shame fatigue and unscientific COVID restrictions are backfiring, “COVID-19 has an odor, and the dogs are detecting it”, In trying for a diverse administration, Biden finds one group’s gain is another’s loss, Giuliani: We’ll continue the fight in state courts. Louis Jacobson/Governing 2016 Electoral Map. And opinions about the president tend to be baked in, not something that people are still sussing out three and a half years into his term. Response to Norbert (Original post) Tue Oct 27, 2020, 10:35 … At this point in the race, hundreds of polls have been conducted, and the vast, vast majority of them show Hillary Clinton winning nationally and in enough states to win the presidency. Exit question: Will he get a bounce from choosing Harris? Final forecast from Nate Silver's 538 ups Clinton's chances of victory to 71%. Qualitative ratings reflect the rating for the state in the middle of each organization’s forecast, weighted by electoral votes. Every forecasting model had to decide how it will weigh those newest polls versus the older polls we’ve known of for some time. But it’s also too soon to count out a scenario in which Biden blows the roof off: It’s important to remember that the uncertainty in our forecast runs in both directions. That’s a paradox of this election thus far: As insane as the uncertainty of day-to-day life has been, that uncertainty isn’t showing up in the election. Due to the sheer scale of this comment community, we are not able to give each post the same level of attention, but we have preserved this area in the interests of open debate. And in a year like 2020, when anything seems possible, we should allow for the chance that the country will endure another major shock or two, or 12, before November 3 that might reorient the race in Trump’s favor. i know that 2008/12 saw 99 of 100 states right. Historical (pre-2016) 538 Forecasts? Biden has never topped 79 percent despite his gaudy polling leads in June and July. (Clinton 71%, Trump 29%) As was also the case in 2016, our model gives Trump a MUCH higher chance than other statistical models. PEC offers, once again, a pundit-free prediction. Facebook; Twitter; Email; … — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 12, 2020. The difference is that Hillary also had moments when her odds crashed, twice dipping below 55 percent and declining by more than 20 points over the second half of October. “In fact,” says Silver, describing his model, “the uncertainty index points toward the overall uncertainty going into November being about average relative to past presidential campaigns.”. AllahpunditPosted at 11:31 am on August 12, 2020. 2016 vs 2020 2016 - Clinton up 1.4% 2020 - Biden up 6.8% We all know electoral college matters so swing states have more say than overall national votes but this is … There’s also the fact that Americans are still able to pay their bills — for the moment — thanks to federal assistance, although now that that’s momentarily dried up, it’s another source of uncertainty. Silver noted about 12 percent of voters are either undecided or say they’ll vote for a third-party candidate, which is contributing to uncertainty. Follow @TheFix on Twitter for their latest commentary and analysis of the 2016 elections. 82% Upvoted. If I were Sleepy Joe, I wouldn’t feel at all comfortable about a four-point lead in any battleground given how pollsters overlooked the strength of Trump’s working-class support last time. Projected margins in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than the margins in the national popular vote. But maybe that’s about to change as the campaign grows more active and Biden becomes more visible? She reached 89 percent after the Democratic convention, declined, then came all the way back to 88 percent in mid-October. Many feel that way considering how much it screwed up its elections forecasts. The site’s final forecast in 2016 gave Hillary a 71.4 percent chance of winning versus a 28.6 percent chance for Trump, which turned out to be good enough for 300+ electoral votes. (Clinton 71%, Trump 29%) As was also the case in 2016, our model gives Trump a MUCH higher chance than other statistical models. Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else By Nate Silver. Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. 538 forecasts a tied Senate; Dems may win House, Senate and Presidency; Comments (17) Login to comment or vote. 50%. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 12, 2020. It wouldn’t surprise me if Biden finally slips below that 69 percent floor he’s had in FiveThirtyEight’s model over the next week. The 29 percent shot he enjoys right now isn’t really driven by the polls: Although the race has tightened a bit in the past few weeks, Biden still enjoys a national lead in the six- to seven-point range, which has the makings of a comfortable win. Our journalists will try to respond by joining the threads when they can to create a true meeting of independent Premium. this might be a long shot, but do y'all know how to access old NYT 538 forecasts from 2008 and 2012? The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. But for the time being, the data does not justify substantially more confidence than that. Click the buttons to see the ways each candidate’s outlook has changed over time. The forecast said Clinton will win the national popular vote by 3.6 percentage points, which is similar to her lead in recent national polls. New numbers from the Democratic firm Change Research, via RCP: Apart from Florida (which is a very notable exception), all of those numbers suggest a tighter race in key states than most pollsters saw a month ago. 6 comments. i know that 2008/12 saw 99 of 100 states right. Neue Fotos werden der Galerie ständig hinzugefügt. When 538's presidential election forecast is released, will the chance of a Trump victory be higher than that given by the forecast from The Economist at that time? The Fivethirtyeight forecast gives Biden a 72% chance of winning the electoral vote, a bit less than the 89% coming from our model at the Economist.. If he wins a second term, odds are it’ll be by the skin of his teeth. But new polling is still coming in every day, and right now this new polling is tending to show a shrinking national lead for Clinton, and a mixed picture in swing states. Chance of winning Electoral votes Popular vote. And it is good news for Hillary Clinton, with Silver's model now giving her a 71.4 per cent chance of victory compared to Mr Trump's 28.6 per cent. 6; 7; 8; First Prev 8 of 8 Go to page. You can also choose to be emailed when someone replies to your comment. Uncertainty in an uncertain age, especially over COVID, is one key component of his chances, says Silver. As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. By Charlie Nash Sep 18th, 2020, 10:41 am . "However, we continue to believe that other forecasts overstate [certainty]," he added. The first thing to say is that 72% and 89% can correspond to vote forecasts and associated uncertainties that are a lot closer than you might think. Benchmarking with the 2016–2017 Season. On the morning of Nov. 5, 2016, I went to Hillary Clinton’s campaign headquarters in Scranton, Pa. — home town of Joe Biden (who was holding … Coincidentally, these are the exact same odds as in our final forecast in 2016!!! Despite the similarity in the numbers, Trump’s 29 percent chance then is qualitatively different from his 29 percent chance now. 82% Upvoted. i'm curious where nate had obama in those races compared to now. 4 0; Log in to Reply; Report; September 21, 2016 1:58pm; adaman. I assume that the big difference here is that we’re using different fundamentals-based predictions, so we’re partially pooling toward a prior of Biden getting 54% of the national vote, while their prior is something more like 52%. Follow our live coverage as Election Day unfolds right here. Comparing the two forecasts. The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. In the case that multiple forecasts are released by 538, the model considering the most information is chosen for this question. You can find our Community Guidelines in full here. Shit, I had no idea he was close to 50% probability…so unless I’m mistaken (Numbers were never my strong point) it’s pretty much anyone’s guess which off the two will take it at this point? A pandemic, an economic collapse, anti-racism riots and protracted violence, and FiveThirtyEight estimates that this race is about as stable as any other presidential contest. FiveThirtyEight noticed the shift towards Trump in the numbers at the time and recalibrated accordingly. David Garrett. Real Clear politics in 2016. That’s a testament to the extent to which voters’ opinions so far are a pure referendum on Trump, I think. vote. It allows our most engaged readers to debate the big issues, share their own experiences, discuss real-world solutions, and more. So to some extent, I don't care what its final forecast would have been in 2016 as long as it’s somewhere in the right vicinity between Clinton 60% and Clinton 85%. report. There’s the chance that Trump could come back — but there’s also the chance that things could get really out of hand for him. Start your Independent Premium subscription today. hide . And to get a sense of how imp… He leads … Our model thinks there’s a 19 percent chance that Biden will win Alaska, for example, and a 13 percent chance that he will win South Carolina. 538 has been all over the map this election. But the election’s not being held today, is it? 90. Hier sollte eine Beschreibung angezeigt werden, diese Seite lässt dies jedoch nicht zu. The original version of this post is archived here. Nate Silver, the renowned pollster who has seriously talked up the chances of Donald Trump winning today's election, has released his final forecast. If you do it right, your national forecast is just the aggregation of your state forecasts, and these forecasts are influenced both by national and state polls. Neue Fotos werden der Galerie ständig hinzugefügt. share. 538 polls 6 weeks out. If you look at the model itself, you’ll find that there are very few scenarios in which Trump does much better than 300 electoral votes. e: specifically percentage forecasts. 538's 2016 prediction. Significantly, Silver said the key swing states of Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Maine (2) had "flipped narrowly to her in the past 48 hours". FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, on the other hand, had Clinton losing every single one of those states to Trump—including Nevada. Thread starter platocplx; Start date Sep 28, 2020; Forums. Go. By MARGARET CHADBOURN. Don’t blame me, Silver counters, reminding readers in his write-up of today’s new 2020 model that his model never counted Trump out. According to 538's Current Election Forecast As of Sept 28th, If Trump Loses PA. His Chances of Winning are essentially over. Nov. 11, 2016, at 4:09 PM. The 2016 Senate Forecast August 29th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang . The headline number. Coincidentally, these are the exact same odds as in our final forecast in 2016!!! HuffPost Pollster was giving Ms Clinton a 98 per cent chance of winning, while The New York Times’ model at The Upshot had her at 85 per cent. Terrible article. Nate Silver Predicts a Close 2016 Presidential Race Election forecaster Nate Silver provides his 2016 predictions. If the election were held today, I suspect Trump would have a less than one in 10 chance at victory. JUST IN: FiveThirtyEight Now Forecasts Democrats Will Win Control of Senate. Biden is different: There are various scenarios in which he cracks 400 electoral votes. I’ll let you guys look at the sites yourselves rather than try to summarize. The Babylon Bee NAILS the Biden-Media Love Affair and It Couldn't Be More LOL Perfect, 'It needs to be destroyed': The Vatican unveils its Sumerian-influenced sci-fi nativity scene. Models: 538 - 2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight RCP - RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps CNN 2016 Electoral Map (Interactive) NY Times The Upshot Huffington Post 270ToWin.com Results: RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls Election Results 2016 - The New York Times RealClearPolitics Ryan Grim at the Huffington Post says "Nate Silver Is … 538 polls 6 weeks out. Here is the latest forecast for Hillary vs. Trump: An eighty percent chance at this point Hillary wins. W Are you sure you want to delete this comment? Want an ad-free experience?Subscribe to Independent Premium. (It’s hard to imagine any scenario in which Trump wins the popular vote, which makes me wonder how to square that with his 29 percent overall chance of winning.) FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. Historical (pre-2016) 538 Forecasts? 538's 2016 prediction. Discussion. save. Prev. save. As he had done in the 2008-2014 elections, Silver set out to predict first the outcome 2016 Republican Presidential Primary and then the results of the Presidential race. Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? # It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes. A colleague pointed me to Nate Silver’s election forecast; see here and here:. 80. 70. Independent Premium Comments can be posted by members of our membership scheme, Independent Premium. Just like everyone on election day 538 political prognosticator Nate Silver is a bit on edge. 6 comments. e: specifically percentage forecasts. Are you sure you want to mark this comment as inappropriate? But he tweeted as his final forecast came out that "show Clinton winning pretty much the same states as everyone else". Trump, i gathered data from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight tied Senate ; Dems may House... In mid-October threads when they can to create and share your own 2016 election forecast as of 28th! Which voters ’ opinions so far are a pure referendum on Trump, i Trump... One in 10 chance at this point Hillary wins 18th, 2020 ; Forums subscribe to Independent Premium can. Over the map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 elections new polls the. Sie sich unsere Galerie über Wetterfotos aus der ganzen Welt an, die von Besuchern geschossen wurden or.! 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